Month: March 2012

The attempted repeal of gay marriage in NH has failed.  Here are a few ways to slice the roll call vote:

Party Votes

Democrats voting against gay marriage*: 1 (Roger Berube of Sommersworth)

Democrats voting for gay marriage: 92

Republicans voting against gay marriage: 115

Republicans voting for gay marriage: 119

Vote Switching

The votes above and the votes  that are reported in the news are of the final vote on ITL.  There were several previous votes, including a simple vote on whether the repeal ought to pass.  There were 17 21 reps who voted for the repeal but then voted to kill the bill.  There are two reasons to do this.   One is pragmatic – since the vote to pass the bill already failed, why not vote to kill it?  That’s the procedural thing to do.  The other reason could be clever political maneuvering – the vote that gets reported is the last one and conceivably a Rep. can be on both sides of the bill come November, depending on the audience.  Here are the switchers:

This first group voted against the repeal, but then voted to not kill the bill.  One supposes they wanted more debate or an amendment?  I don’t think these are particularly meaningful.

 

Belvin, William	Republican	Hillsborough	6
Chirichiello, Brian	Republican	Rockingham	5
Davenport, Joshua	Republican	Rockingham	12
Flanders, Donald	Republican	Belknap	4
Hunt, John	Republican	Cheshire	7
Johnson, Jane	Republican	Cheshire	6
Kingsbury, Robert	Republican	Belknap	4
Packard, Sherman	Republican	Rockingham	3
Pilliod, James	Republican	Belknap	5
Ritter, Glenn	Republican	Rockingham	14

 

This next group is the more interesting one: Reps who voted ‘against gay marriage’ before they voted ‘for’ it:

 

Bradley, Lester	Republican	Grafton	4	Yea
Brown, Julie	Republican	Strafford	1	Yea
Coffey, James	Republican	Hillsborough	3	Yea
Devine, James	Republican	Rockingham	7	Yea
Eaton, Stephanie	Republican	Grafton	1	Yea
Emerton, Larry	Republican	Hillsborough	7	Yea
Erickson, Duane	Republican	Hillsborough	25	Yea
Graham, John	Republican	Hillsborough	18	Yea
Hagan, Joseph	Republican	Rockingham	7	Yea
Hawkins, Kenneth	Republican	Hillsborough	18	Yea
Katsakiores, Phyllis	Republican	Rockingham	5	Yea
Malone, Robert	Republican	Belknap	5	Yea
McGuire, Dan	Republican	Merrimack	8	Yea
Newton, Clifford	Republican	Strafford	1	Yea
Parsons, Robbie	Republican	Strafford	3	Yea
Proulx, Mark	Republican	Hillsborough	15	Yea
Reilly, Harold	Republican	Grafton	8	Yea
Remick, William	Republican	Coos	2	Yea
Sanders, Elisabeth	Republican	Rockingham	7	Yea
Terrio, Ross	Republican	Hillsborough	14	Yea
Vita, Carol	Republican	Strafford	3	Yea

 

By the simple tally of the final vote, one would conclude that a majority of Republicans voted to protect gay marriage in NH. But by including those who first voted to remove gay marriage, it becomes clear that a majority of voting Republican Reps. in NH are against gay marriage.

Adding in the vote switchers, in both directions ( counting those who voted ‘nay’ on OTP then ‘nay’ on ITL as ‘for’ and those who voted ‘yay’ on OTP then ‘yay’ on ITL as ‘against’, for +- 11), yields:

Republicans who voted against gay marriage: 126

Republicans voting for gay marriage: 108

I think this is a more correct tally than just the ITL vote. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again – without a veto-proof majority, this whole exercise on the Republicans’ part was a gift to the Democrats come November. Gay rights aside, they betray their political futures and their constituents by choosing to give up seats in November.

Liberty Rep. Votes

OK, that’s now the whole house voted – how about the pro-liberty reps (as defined by the top-25 spots on the 2011 NHLA Liberty Rating)?

Name	District	Town	Grade	Vote
Brown, Paul	Rockingham 2	Raymond	A+	Pro Gay Marriage
Cohn, Seth	Merrimack 6	Canterbury	A+	Pro Gay Marriage
DeJong, Cameron	Hillsborough 9	Manchester	A	Pro Gay Marriage
Greazzo, Phil	Hillsborough 17	Manchester	A	Pro Gay Marriage
Malone, Robert	Belknap 5	Alton Bay	A	Pro Gay Marriage
Maltz, Jonathan	Hillsborough 27	Hudson	A	Pro Gay Marriage
Murphy, Keith	Hillsborough 18	Bedford	A	Pro Gay Marriage
Newton, Clifford	Strafford 1	Rochester	A	Pro Gay Marriage
Sanborn, Laurie	Merrimack 5	Henniker	A	Pro Gay Marriage
Seaworth, G. Brian	Merrimack 7	Pembroke	A+	Pro Gay Marriage
Simmons, Tammy	Hillsborough 18	Manchester	A	Pro Gay Marriage
Tasker, Kyle	Rockingham 1	Northwood	A	Pro Gay Marriage
Vaillancourt, Steve	Hillsborough 15	Manchester	A+	Pro Gay Marriage
Manuse, Andrew	Rockingham 5	Derry	A	No Vote
Warden, Mark	Hillsborough 7	Goffstown	A+	No Vote
Holden, Frank	Hillsborough 4	Lyndeborough	A-	Excused
Okerman, Richard	Rockingham 4	Windham	A	Excused
Bowers, Spec	Sullivan 3	Georges Mills	A	Anti Gay Marriage
DeLemus, Susan	Strafford 1	Rochester	A	Anti Gay Marriage
Giuda, J. Brandon	Merrimack 7	Chichester	A	Anti Gay Marriage
Jones, Kyle	Strafford 1	Rochester	A+	Anti Gay Marriage
Jones, Laura	Strafford 1	Rochester	A	Anti Gay Marriage
McGuire, Dan	Merrimack 8	Epsom	A	Anti Gay Marriage**
Tregenza, Norman	Carroll 2	Silver Lake	A	Anti Gay Marriage
Vita, Lucien	Strafford 3	Middleton	A	Anti Gay Marriage

Do with it what you will.

• The actual vote was a yay/nay vote on an ITL (inexpedient to legislate) measure, which means it should not become law, on a bill to repeal gay marriage. So a ‘yay’ vote is a vote for not enacting a repeal of gay marriage. So, a for-against-against vote is for gay marriage since the double-negatives cancel out. Just so that’s clear to right-minded humans, it’s simplified above.

** vote for OTP before ITL

 

Update 1: 2012-03-23:23:52 – added vote-switchers

Update 2: 2012-03-24:00:46 – fixed switcher count

US intelligence consensus view:

“Recent assessments by American spy agencies are broadly consistent with a 2007 intelligence finding that concluded that Iran had abandoned its nuclear weapons program years earlier, according to current and former American officials. The officials said that assessment was largely reaffirmed in a 2010 National Intelligence Estimate, and that it remains the consensus view of America’s 16 intelligence agencies.”

Israeli intelligence says:

“…while Iran continues to improve its nuclear capabilities, it has not yet decided whether to translate these capabilities into a nuclear weapon – or, more specifically, a nuclear warhead mounted atop a missile. Nor is it clear when Iran might make such a decision.”

Compare and contrast with the rhetoric of three of the four Republican Presidential candidates:

Mitt Romney:

Look, one thing you can know and that is if we reelect Barack Obama, Iran will have a nuclear weapon…it’s worth putting in place crippling sanctions. It’s worth working with the insurgents in the country to encourage regime change in the country. And if all else fails, if after all of the work we’ve done, there’s nothing else we could do besides mil — take military action, then of course you take military action.

Rick Santorum:

“Any foreign scientists working in Iran on this nuclear program will be termed an enemy combatant and will be subject − like any other enemy combatant, like Osama bin Laden − to being taken out by the United States government as a threat to this country,”

Newt Gingrich:

“I would also point out that a Gingrich presidency would communicate publicly to the Iranians that if they continue to do what they’re doing, they should expect to get hit, and it will be their fault for having caused it.”

And, just for completeness:

Ron Paul:

“I’m afraid what’s going on right now is similar to the war propaganda that went on against Iraq. And you know they didn’t have weapons of mass destruction and it was orchestrated and it was, to me, a tragedy of what’s happened these past — last 10 years, the death and destruction, $4 billion — $4 trillion in debt. So no, it’s not worthwhile going to war. If you do, you get a declaration of war and you fight it and you win it and get it over with.”